There Is No Rebound: An Emergency Option for Biden and Harris
A certain grand bargain between Biden and Harris would honor Harris for her selflessness with induction into the ranks of US Presidents. It could inspire and reassure an anxious nation. And, ideally, it would open the way for a big victory that could not be reasonably contested by the majoritarian, Constitution-respecting president the country needs.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris greet guests at the White House Independence Day celebration. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
This endnoted and lightly edited piece was originally published online on July 25, three days after President Biden withdrew from the presidential race.
President Joseph R. Biden’s legacy now boasts three historic acts of service to the republic. The first was to evict from power President Donald Trump—the first and only American chief executive to try to overturn a free and fair election. The second was Biden’s selfless decision on July 21st to withdraw from the presidential race because his chances of defeating Trump again had become slim. Biden’s third came minutes later: his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, which paved the way for the first major party nomination for a woman of color.
This is a great American moment. It deserves celebration. The outpouring of endorsements, funding, and enthusiasm for Harris in recent days has been truly inspiring. I hope it continues and that she rolls to a big, uncontestable victory in November.
We also have to remember that when Biden withdrew because the ticket’s numbers were so grim, the person he endorsed was the other person on that ticket. Biden’s faltering debate performance and obvious aging are particular problems for him. But even before the debate, Trump looked on track for victory, despite majority public disapproval dating to the start of his presidency and accumulation of further negatives at his term’s end and thereafter. Trump has only been the favorite for 2024 because approval ratings for Biden and Harris slipped underwater during the first year of their term and have sometimes been even lower than Trump’s. By some estimates, the Biden and Harris numbers have at many moments been at or below those of all one-term presidents since the advent of modern polling.[1] Reportedly, further collapse in Biden’s numbers in swing states after the June 28 presidential debate finally convinced him to drop out.[2]
“In this context, it is completely reasonable to conclude that the fate of the rule of law in America may rest on Trump’s electoral defeat.”
No one knows what a second Trump term would hold, but as former House Select Jan. 6 Committee Co-Chair and former US Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and many others have made clear, there is abundant reason to be deeply worried for the Constitution.[3] Contempt for the rule of law is unquestionably reflected in Trump’s participation in the multi-part effort to overturn the free and fair 2020 election, thoroughly documented by the bipartisan Jan. 6 Committee.[4] It is also evident in many other acts and statements over the years that are straight out of the authoritarian playbook (accusing courts of bias and corruption without evidence, discrediting the free press as the “enemy of the people,” using “blood poison” language and other racialized language reminiscent of Nazi rhetoric, writing that his [stolen election] big lie justifies “termination of all rules” and articles of the Constitution, encouraging violence at rallies, telling the militia that later attacked the Capitol on his behalf on Jan. 6 to “stand back and stand by,” refusing to accept elections he does not win, and the list goes on).[5] Disrespect for the rule of law is also abundantly apparent in the extensive evidence of criminality presented in pending indictments in federal and state court for the election schemes, his conviction in May on thirty-four felony criminal charges for a financial conspiracy, as well as court findings of legal liability in recent years for massive financial fraud, repeated contempt of court, and sexual assault. Trump has used the term “dictator” in connection with his potential second term.[6] Recently, he chose a running mate who has explicitly recommended that if reelected Trump should knowingly order illegal actions and ignore contrary court decisions.[7] The most obvious implication here is presidential rule unconstrainted by law—a prospect fundamentally inconsistent with our Constitution of limited government, separated federal powers, and individual rights.
In this context, it is completely reasonable to conclude that the fate of the rule of law in America may rest on Trump’s electoral defeat. Every American, of whatever political persuasion in normal times, should therefore hope that Harris quickly turns things around. If Biden and his aging were indeed the problem with the Biden-Harris ticket, then one would expect to see a clear upward trajectory for Harris after Biden’s withdrawal.
If, however, swing-state polls for Harris have not recovered by the time the Democratic Convention approaches in late August, the Democrats and indeed the entire nation will face a slate of bad options. Re-inserting Biden would probably be impossible and in any event would likely only hurt him, in the same way that third party candidate Ross Perot only hurt his numbers by quitting the 1992 presidential campaign that July and then later rejoining it. The Democratic Party plans on a virtual roll call vote for Harris in early August, so having Harris compete in an open convention as a way of juicing excitement and her exposure would be similarly senseless. Staying the course would be anxiety inducing at that point, hoping against hope that Harris just needs more time to be fully introduced to voters, that her coronation at the August 19–22 convention in Chicago will help, and that thereafter she would eventually catch and edge out Trump. Antacid-grabbing as stay-the-course sounds, that is logically the best bad option because there are no other alternatives.
Or are there? As Star Trek’s Mr. Spock liked to observe, there are always possibilities. One for Biden, Harris, and other top strategists to contemplate, and perhaps even now prepare just in case three weeks from now the ticket’s current swing state deficits are stable or worsening, involves President Biden reentering the political fray to make a fourth great, selfless act of service to the republic.
A Grand Bargain
What I have in mind is a grand bargain between Biden and Harris that opens the door to a fresh ticket at the convention. Biden would resign and make Harris president. In return, Harris would decline the nomination, and devote the remainder of the presidential term to orchestrating an orderly convention that generates a completely new ticket and shepherding the nation through the stressful election season.
A second summer swap at the top of the ticket would not be easy. It could turn off some voters the campaign needs to persuade. The desperation of the move would be obvious, too. And, the opposition would surely have a field day, at least for a while (our culture’s attention span seems to shrink by the minute).
Even so, if there appeared no viable path to victory for a Harris-led ticket, then the party would have nothing to lose in trying to capture the grand bargain’s multiple potential benefits.
First are the deal’s immediate gifts. The deal would end public worry about whether their president is physically and cognitively up to the demands of the world’s hardest job. It would give the country a younger president who, after four years as vice president, could not be more up-to-date on current issues, decision processes, and global threats. Biden would also give the nation its long-overdue first female and first Asian-American President. That would be a very welcome moment of national celebration.
Then there are the majoritarian and centrism benefits. Harris would join Biden in being responsive to the overwhelming public desire—nearly three-fourths of the electorate—for new candidates (even though polls typically have polled Trump versus Biden, Harris has been implicated to some extent because everyone has expected her to be Biden’s running mate).[8] She would be acknowledging the realities of years of underwater approval ratings. She would be recognizing that (I think somewhat unfairly) the voters, and especially the “double-haters” who are perhaps this election’s most powerful center swing voters, will likely hold her responsible for (now reduced) pandemic-era inflation, and for the chaotic, bipartisan, multi-decade embarrassment that is border and immigration policy.[9] She would be recognizing that a significant and important part of the electorate remains embittered over the inability of the Biden-Harris administration to craft a response to the Gaza War that seemed to fairly balance moral principle and national security interests.
Most obvious are the grand bargain’s election process and civic benefits. It would spare the nation a non-competitive but still assuredly stressful presidential election. Through her stewardship of the convention, Harris would resolve questions about whether and how the Democratic Party can provide the electorate—including frustrated swing voters—an entirely fresh ticket and viable alternative to Trump. Such a new team also holds the promise of avoiding deep losses in the Congress that in a second Trump term would have a Constitution-protection role.
An open Democratic convention that is well-managed by President Harris could be exactly the opposite of “damaging” and “chaotic,” as the convention is so often depicted by anxious Democrats.[10] An orderly convention where delegates respectfully debate and evaluate an exciting array of new candidates is well precedented—presidential tickets have been picked at conventions many times in American history, although admittedly not since 1976.[11] Renewing this tradition would take some doing but would surely capture the nation’s attention. I expect that it would considerably revive national confidence in our democracy’s ability to renew itself. Trump would look so small in comparison to this grand moment—and would be pushed from the headlines. The circumstances of national emergency, underscored by Harris becoming president at this time, would give her massive moral authority to remind Democrats to put aside personal ambitions and factional interests in favor of an orderly process and a fresh ticket with potential—in this time of strong majority desire for change—to beat Trump soundly.
The Opportunity to Go Big
Soundly beating Trump is an especially important prospect. To date, the Biden-Harris theory of victory has boiled down to a fourth-quarter surge that results in a razor-thin victory in several swing states—a now-unlikely repeat of narrow victories by Trump in 2016 and Biden-Harris in 2020. But a narrow Harris victory could prove a nightmare second only to a Trump win. Trump, the Heritage Foundation, and others have already again rejected democracy’s requirement that partisans respect losses, by repeating false claims of election fraud and declaring that they will only respect only an election Trump wins. We all watched, and people died, during the 2020 season of this horrifying reality show.[12] A close Trump loss means unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, lies, violence, and terrible damage to worldwide regard for the United States and the global cause of democracy.
A fresh ticket would have inherent national majoritarian and electoral college “big win” potential thanks to strong majority desire for change, and it could readily be assembled under President Harris’s guidance at the convention. She could also ensure that the new ticket, drawing on the Democratic Party’s deep bench, reflects our nation’s wonderful diversity. A sizable cadre of viable Democratic candidates is younger than Biden and Trump, and well qualified for high office. They are not so readily tied to the outgoing administration’s record on inflation, Gaza, and the border, and have nothing like Trump’s long list of negatives and long-baked majority disapproval. A couple example tickets with majoritarian potential are Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Sen. Corey Booker (D-NJ). The papers these days are full of mention of other good candidates, too, offering an exciting array of potential combinations.[13]
An Add-On to the Grand Bargain: A Republican VP for President Harris
An additional element of the Biden-Harris deal could be for Harris’s short-term successor as vice president to be a Republican.
Under the Constitution, when a vacancy opens in the vice presidency, the President nominates and the Senate confirms. President Harris and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer could use this process to create a national unity team in a time of clear national emergency. This move would recall Republican Abraham Lincoln’s choice of a Democrat as his running mate in the Civil War election year of 1864.[14]
The new Vice President would be one of the many brave Republicans who have made clear by word and deed that Trump’s obvious threat to the rule of law matters more than party or personal agendas. The new Veep would commit in advance to the nation-protecting spirit of the arrangement, and not to advance any other agenda. Candidates to be approached include former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IN), and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). In speaking the truth to colleagues and voters who embraced or acquiesced to Trump’s lies and playbook authoritarian moves, each of these patriots has already shown true courage in placing the Constitution ahead of their policy preferences and political fortunes.
An Emergency Measure that Would Match the Moment
Is the Biden-Harris deal I propose (with or without this VP element) unlikely? Sure. Would the convention be challenging to orchestrate, and would a new ticket require intensive introduction to the electorate in short order? Absolutely.
But selection of new candidates even later in the campaign season is well precedented. It has happened many times at the state and local levels when candidates have abruptly withdrawn or died. For example, US Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) died in a plane crash less than two weeks before election day 2002, and yet a new candidate was quickly chosen by the Democratic party and voted on by the state’s electorate.[15] If this year one of the presidential tickets similarly perished in a plane crash months or weeks before the election, there is no question that their party would quickly provide a replacement. Neither party would just give up. If state ballot listing laws were an issue, there would surely be well-organized write-in campaigns where necessary, which we know can win close elections. Just ask US Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who won reelection in 2010 by write-in after she lost the Republican primary.[16] Our country can do hard things.
Of course, even in the mid-August scenario I envision, where Harris’s fortunes are flat or declining, staying the course will likely seem the least bad or only option. But if the issue for swing voters is simply that the Biden-Harris administration presided over years they found difficult, and Harris on her own cannot escape the center’s concerns with their stewardship, then Biden, Harris, and others may appreciate knowing that there is this grand-bargain emergency escape hatch. Obviously, it is a late substitution and hurry-up offense (“Hail Mary”?) option. But big plays late in the game, just like Trump’s unlikely last-second surge after trailing badly in mid-October 2016, sometimes win the day.
The Biden-Harris grand bargain is also the kind of big historic move that matches this perilous moment and recalls the enormous risks taken by the republic’s Founders. The selflessness on the part of Biden and Harris that would be involved in this deal, aimed at defeating a chaos candidate, plus its responsiveness to majority public sentiment, would reflect the best of what the Founding Generation termed “republican virtue.” That is, courage and subordination of personal or factional interest to protect the common national interest. In times like these, as Cheney, Kinzinger, and other brave Republicans have so powerfully articulated and practiced, civic virtue of this kind must take priority over the transactional politics of normal times in which people vote their immediate interests or preferences.[17]
***
Kamala Harris is an inspiring, capable, and honorable public servant and candidate. I fervently hope she gets a quick, big bounce. By mid-August I hope that there are unmistakable indications that her trajectory is upward and that the ticket has a good shot at victory in November.
If not, however, this Biden-Harris grand bargain, plus the late August convention, provides an emergency path to a fresh ticket. The deal would take a lot of effort and luck to implement, but the high stakes and potential benefits could make it the best of bad options. It may well cement the status of Biden and Harris as statespersons of the highest rank in American history. It would honor Harris for her selflessness with induction into the ranks of US Presidents. It could inspire and reassure an anxious nation. And, ideally, it would open the way for a big victory that could not be reasonably contested by the majoritarian, Constitution-respecting president the country needs.
Endnotes:
[1] Jefferey M. Jones, “Biden’s 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically,” Gallup (April 24, 2024), https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx.
[2] Albert Sun, “See How Biden Lost Support in the Polls before He Dropped Out,” The New York Times (July 23, 2024), https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/23/us/politics/polls-biden-trump-debate-shift.html.
[3] Jamie Gangel, Jeremy Herb, and Elizabeth Stuart, “Liz Cheney’s New Book Blasts GOP as ‘Enablers and Collaborators’ of Trump,” CNN(November 29, 2023), https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/politics/liz-cheney-trump-mccarthy-book/index.html.
[4] Select January 6th Committee Final Report and Supporting Materials Collection, GovInfo (accessed July 30, 2024), https://www.govinfo.gov/collection/january-6th-committee-final-report.
[5] Jennifer Dresden, Aaron Baird, and Ben Raderstorf, “The Authoritarian Playbook,” Protect Democracy (June 2022)https://protectdemocracy.org/project/playbook-media-primer/; Leah Sarnoff, “Donald Trump Calls Hush Money Trial ‘Rigged’ After Being Found Guilty on All Counts,” ABC News (May 30, 2024), https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-calls-hush-money-trial-rigged-after/story?id=110694162; Brett Samuels, “Trump Ramps up Rhetoric on Media, Calls Press ‘the Enemy of the People,’ ” The Hill (April 15, 2019), https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/437610-trump-calls-press-the-enemy-of-the-people/; Ginger Gibson, “Trump Says Immigrants are ‘Poisoning the Blood of our Country,’ ” NBC News (December 17, 2023), https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-immigrants-are-poisoning-blood-country-biden-campaign-liken-rcna130141; Kristen Holmes, “Trump Calls for the Termination of the Constitution in Truth Social Post,” CNN (December 4, 2022), https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/trump-constitution-truth-social/index.html; Fabiola Cineas, “Donald Trump is the Accelerant,” Vox (January 9, 2021) https://www.vox.com/21506029/trump-violence-tweets-racist-hate-speech; Associated Press, “Trump Tells Proud Boys: ‘Stand Back and Stand by,’ ” YouTube (September 30, 2020), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIHhB1ZMV_o.
[6] David A. Graham, “The Cases Against Trump: A Guide,” The Atlantic (July 18, 2024), https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/donald-trump-legal-cases-charges/675531/.
[7] Jonathan V. Last, “J.D. Vance Thinks Trump Should Defy the Supreme Court,” Bulwark (July 17, 2024), https://thebulwark.com/p/jd-vance-thinks-trump-should-defy.
[8] Kate Sullivan, “CNN Poll: 75% of Democratic Voters Want Someone Other Than Biden in 2024,” CNN (July 27, 2022), www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/cnn-poll-biden-2024/index.html.
[9] Ashley Parker, “Meet the ‘Double Haters’ Who Could Decide the Election,” The Washington Post (June 23, 2024), https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/23/double-haters-biden-trump-deciders/.
[10] Matt Bai, “Democrats Fear a Messy Convention. Trump Should Fear Their Meltdown More,” The Washington Post (June 28, 2024), https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/28/democrats-should-welcome-convention-floor-fight-chicago/.
[11] Drew Desilver, “Contested Presidential Conventions, and Why Parties Try to Avoid Them,” Pew Research Center (February 4, 2016), https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/.
[12] Chris Cameron, “These Are the People Who Died in Connection With the Capitol Riot,” New York Times (October 13, 2022), https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/us/politics/jan-6-capitol-deaths.html.
[13] Deepa Shivaram, “Meet the Democrats Seen as Up-and-Comers for 2028—or Maybe Sooner,” NPR (July 5, 2024), https://whyy.org/articles/biden-harris-newsom-whitmer-2024/.
[14] Cornell University Library, “1864: The Civil War Election” (accessed July 31, 2024) https://rmc.library.cornell.edu/vote/1864/index.html.
[15] William H. Flanigan, Joanne M. Miller, Jennifer L. Williams, and Nancy H. Zingale, “From Intensity to Tragedy: the Minnesota U.S. Senate Race,” in The Last Hurrah? Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2002 Congressional Elections, ed. David B. Magelby and J. Q. Monson (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2004), https://experts.umn.edu/en/publications/from-intensity-to-tragedy-the-minnesota-us-senate-race.
[16] Yereth Rosen, “Senator Lisa Murkowski Wins Alaska Write-in Campaign,” Reuters (November 18, 2010), https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us-politics/senator-lisa-murkowski-wins-alaska-write-in-campaign-idUSTRE6AG51C/.
[17] Sam Metz, “GOP Censures Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger for Participation in Jan. 6 Investigation,” PBS News (February 4, 2022), https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/gop-censures-liz-cheney-and-adam-kinzinger-for-participation-in-jan-6-investigation.
